Climate risk strategy
The institution’s position, what it will and will not finance, and how that connects to credit policy rather than to a disclosure document.
Advisory
Climate risk, as a credit question.
Physical and transition risk assessed against the portfolio you actually hold — which in this region means agriculture, and means the exposure is nearer than most disclosure frameworks suggest.
Context
What you are facing
Climate risk arrives at African banks differently than the frameworks assume.
The imported model treats transition risk as the near-term concern — carbon-intensive borrowers repricing as policy tightens — and physical risk as a long-horizon problem. In a portfolio weighted toward agriculture and agricultural value chains, that is inverted. A failed rainy season is a physical risk event that shows up in arrears within one season, not one decade. Transition risk, meanwhile, arrives indirectly, through export markets applying carbon requirements to your borrowers’ buyers.
Supervisors in the region are beginning to ask about this. Most institutions have a sustainability statement and no analysis connecting climate to credit.
Deliverables
What we deliver
Concrete outputs, not activities.
Materiality assessment and heat mapping
Physical and transition exposure across sectors and geographies in your book, so effort goes where the risk is.
Physical risk assessment
Acute and chronic hazard exposure mapped to borrower location and activity, with agricultural value chains treated at the level of detail they warrant here.
Transition risk assessment
Policy, technology, market and reputational channels, including the indirect exposure that reaches a domestic borrower through the requirements of its export customers.
Climate scenario analysis
Scenarios calibrated to your portfolio and translated into credit consequences rather than left as narrative.
Integration into credit and ECL
The point at which climate risk stops being a parallel exercise and starts affecting a provision.
Disclosure readiness
For institutions preparing to report under an emerging supervisory or investor requirement.
Methodology
How we work
Step 01 of 04
01
Discover
Portfolio composition by sector, geography and borrower activity, and what your supervisor and funders are asking for.
Where we have done this
For a commercial bank in Uganda, we developed the climate risk strategy and the supporting scenario analysis, assessing physical and transition risk against the institution’s portfolio and connecting the findings to its risk appetite.
Related services
The deepen motion — where existing clients extend.
Next step
Start with the heat map.
Before any scenario work, it is worth knowing where in your book the exposure actually sits. That assessment is short, inexpensive, and frequently surprising.